The Tajikistan Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) provides an analysis and recommendations on the country''s ambitions to green its economy and ensure a resilient development path. The costs of inaction would be high, threatening lives and the country''s economic growth prospects.
More frequent and severe droughts, floods, landslides, heat, and air pollution are just some of the impacts Tajikistan faces from climate change. These disasters underscore the need for urgent action to protect the country''s people and economy from climate shocks. According to the Tajikistan Country and Climate Development Report, the cost of inaction would be high:
Climate action offers Tajikistan an opportunity to transform its economy and create jobs while protecting its people from the growing risks of extreme weather events induced and exacerbated by climate change. While the Government of Tajikistan has outlined an ambitious plan to green the country''s economy, the World Bank Group''s CCDR finds that it can go further to ensure a resilient development path.
The Tajikistan CCDR sets out five policy packages to enhance the country''s resilience to climate change, accelerate low-carbon development, and ensure an inclusive green transition:
Tajikistan stands to reap considerable benefits from advancing these policies to enhance resilience to climate change, accelerate low-carbon development, and ensure an inclusive green transition:
Adaptation and resilience measures can cut the economic impacts of climate change by half and the low-carbon growth model can boost GDP by 6% by 2050, with diversification, increased exports, and better jobs. Mobilizing private finance to complement limited public resources will be key to the success of the green transition to achieve water, food, and energy security; and protect the vulnerable through effective climate strategies.
Implementing this climate mitigation and adaptation agenda will require around $17 billion on top of the $79 billion in investments to meet the government''s ambitious reform agenda for 2025–2050. A large share of these investments could come from the private sector, particularly in energy, industry and agriculture, but improvements to the business regulatory environment, opening up the economy and leveling the playing field for better competition will be key for unlocking private capital.
Transformational development will require taking full advantage of all sources of finance, internal and external, including foreign investments, particularly grants and concessional loans from international financial organizations, global climate funds, and other development partners.
This publication synthesizes climate characteristics and projections, vulnerability to natural hazards, sectoral climate change impacts, and adaptation priorities in Tajikistan.
It outlines rapid onset and long-term changes in key climate parameters, as well as the impact of these changes on communities, livelihoods, and economies—many of which are already underway. The publication is part of a series of climate risk country profiles published jointly by ADB and the World Bank Group. The aim of the series is to provide development practitioners with easy-to-use technical resources to facilitate upstream country diagnostics, policy dialogue, and strategic planning.
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) is committed to achieving a prosperous, inclusive, resilient, and sustainable Asia and the Pacific, while sustaining its efforts to eradicate extreme poverty. It assists its members and partners by providing loans, technical assistance, grants, and equity investments to promote social and economic development.
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DUSHANBE, November 7, 2024 – Climate action offers Tajikistan an opportunity to rejuvenate its economy and create jobs while protecting its people from the growing risks of extreme weather events induced by climate change, says the World Bank Group''s Tajikistan Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR), released today.
While the government of Tajikistan has set out an agenda to transform the country''s economy through a green transition, the report finds that it can go further to ensure a resilient development path. A complementary reform program is needed to bring significant economic benefits for the country and the broader region, adaptation to climate change, and decarbonization of the Central Asia electricity systems.
"Tajikistan is in urgent need of an economic reset that can help address its many development challenges as well as significant and increasing impacts of climate change that are threatening future progress," said Ozan Sevimli, World Bank Group Country Manager for Tajikistan. "The CCDR provides an actionable pathway to accelerate the transition to a green economy and catalyze long-term growth prospects."
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