Since gaining independence in the 1990s, Moldova has been locked in a frozen conflict with Moscow over Transnistria, a Kremlin-backed separatist region near Moldova''s eastern border with over a quarter of a million people.
The face-off has been tense, but maintained by a powerful connection: Moldova gets cut-rate Russian energy via Transnistria, which gets hundreds of millions of euros a year in return. The link allowed Russia to preserve control over the strategic strip of land along the Ukrainian border, where its troops are stationed despite Moldova''s objections.
That dynamic is changing, however. Moldova in recent years has integrated with Europe under pro-EU President Maia Sandu. Brussels has offered millions of euros and more links to its energy supplies as part of a yearslong process to get the country, one of Europe''s poorest nations, ready for EU membership.
"Moldova is no longer dependent on Transnistria," Moldovan Foreign Minister Mihai Popșoi told POLITICO. "When it comes to gas, we buy gas on the international market. On the electricity side, we are building high-voltage lines to connect ourselves to Romania."
The switch is a problem for Transnistria,but also for the Moldovan government. Stopping payments to Transnistria would collapse the separatist state''s budget and leave hundreds of thousands of people there without incomes and basic services — a challenge that, for a country Moldova''s size, would be akin to the reunification of Germany following the fall of the Berlin Wall.
"The elites in Transnistria acknowledge already that we buy electricity from the region not because we have to but because the alternative is to throw the region into a humanitarian crisis," Moldovan Energy Minister Victor Parlicov said in an interview.
"There is a strong incentive now for us to reintegrate the country peacefully," said Popșoi, who was appointed foreign minister in January. "Solving the conflict means full reintegration and Moldova taking control of its sovereign borders."
From the bridge over the river Dniester, you can see the Russian soldiers. Wearing camouflage uniforms, they huddle together against the rain at a checkpoint emblazoned with the Soviet hammer and sickle.
Over the years, Transnistria has developed its own armed forces, public services and pension schemes — all funded through marked-up sales of cheap Russian energy to Moldova.
"The entire region is dependent on free gas like it''s drugs," said Parlicov, the energy minister, speaking from the imposing government building in Chișinău''s central square.
Moldova, too, has been hooked on the discount energy. The Russian-owned Cuciurgan power plant in Transnistria is Moldova''s largest energy source, supplying around four-fifths of the country''s power in exchange for hundreds of millions of euros a year. Moldova also relies on high-voltage cables running through Transnistria, giving the region — and its Russian partners — even more leverage.
"The beauty of it for the Russians was that by buying electricity from the Transnistrian region, we were basically financing the separatism in our own country," Parlicov said.
The EU has changed that calculus. In recent years, Brussels has given Moldova tens of millions of euros to build infrastructure and cement its connection to European energy networks, offsetting the costs of buying supplies from elsewhere.
That means Moldova doesn''t have to buy Transnistria''s gas anymore, which could spell trouble for the breakaway state. Transnistria has used access to discounted Russian fuel and electricity revenues to build an industrial sector that would crumble virtually overnight if Moldova cut off payments.
Yet Moldova is keenly aware that destroying Transnistria''s economic engine also means harming local citizens —the same people it wants to reintegrate into Moldovan society.
Since Sandu won power in 2020, Moldova has made strides in tackling corruption, reforming public institutions and strengthening its democracy. For its efforts, the country was granted EU candidate status last year, and talks over joining the bloc are ongoing.
European politicians have previously hinted that the Transnistria issue may have to be settled before its application clears the final hurdle. Moldovan leaders are pushing back, repeatedly urging Brussels not to let Moscow and its proxies determine Moldova''s EU fate.
"Solving the energy issue with Transnistria would be a major step forward," said Viola von Cramon-Taubadel, a German MEP and member of the European Parliament''s foreign affairs committee. "But will this be enough for Transnistria to slowly but steadily integrate into the country?"
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