Considering existing policies and market conditions, our main case sees 5500gigawatts (GW) of new renewable capacity becoming operational by 2030. This implies that global renewable capacity additions will continue to increase every year, reaching almost 940GW annually by 2030 – 70% more than the Contact online >>
Considering existing policies and market conditions, our main case sees 5500gigawatts (GW) of new renewable capacity becoming operational by 2030. This implies that global renewable capacity additions will continue to increase every year, reaching almost 940GW annually by 2030 – 70% more than the record level achieved last year. Solar PV and wind together account for 95% of all renewable capacity growth through the end of this decade due their growing economic attractiveness in almost all countries.
New solar capacity added between now and 2030 will account for 80% of the growth in renewable power globally by the end of this decade. Adoption accelerates due to declining costs, shorter permitting timelines and widespread social acceptance. Cost-competitiveness and policy support also stimulate the growth of distributed applications among residential and commercial consumers as more households and companies seek to reduce their electricity bills.
In our main case, renewables will account for almost half of global electricity generation by 2030, with the share of wind and solar PV doubling to 30%. At the end of this decade, solar PV is set to become the largest renewable source, surpassing both wind and hydropower, which is currently the largest renewable generation source by far.
Solar PV manufacturers are scaling back investment plans due to a deepening supply glut and record-low prices. Global solar manufacturing capacity is expected to reach over 1100 GW by the end of 2024, more than double projected PV demand. This oversupply has caused module prices to more than halve since early 2023, leading to negative net margins for integrated solar PV manufacturers in 2024. The challenging market conditions have resulted in the cancellation of about 300GW of polysilicon and 200GW of wafer manufacturing capacity projects, valued at approximately USD25billion.
Limited prospects of global demand catching up with supply exposes smaller manufacturers to bankruptcy risks. We estimate that 17% of global polysilicon and 10% of wafer manufacturing capacity could be considered at risk due to age and suboptimal production processes. Despite slower growth in supply chain capacity, it is still expected to significantly exceed installations in 2030.
In contrast, the wind turbine manufacturing sector needs more investment to avoid supply chain bottlenecks by 2030. Global onshore wind manufacturing capacity could reach 145GW, barely above expected installations in 2030 despite the incentives available in Europe, the United States and Southeast Asia. For offshore wind, the situation is even more severe. Without new manufacturing projects, supply chain bottlenecks could delay the rollout of offshore wind in EU member states, which are pursuing ambitious 2030 offshore wind goals.
Establishing criteria for awarding renewable power capacity beyond just prices is emerging as a new tool to avoid direct trade measures while pursuing multiple policy goals. In the first half of 2024, almost 60% of all capacity awarded in auctions worldwide included non-price criteria, such as sustainability, supply chain security or energy system integration – double the level seen five years ago. While this approach may lead to higher awarded prices in the short term, it can support energy system optimisation and various socio-economic goals at the domestic level.
The share of renewable fuels in total energy demand remains below 6% in 2030 despite accelerating growth. Demand is poised to expand in all regions, but it is concentrated in Brazil, China, Europe, India and the United States, which collectively support two-thirds of the growth due to dedicated policies to support the uptake of several – and in some cases, all – renewable fuels.
Bioenergy accounts for almost all renewable fuel growth through 2030. Bioenergy use expands the most in industry, followed by transport and then buildings. Modern bioenergy is less expensive than hydrogen and e-fuels, and strong policy support is already in place in many regions. For instance, more than 60 countries have liquid biofuel policies, whereas only the European Union and the United Kingdom have e-fuel requirements.
Road biofuels remain dominant, but aviation and maritime consumption is accelerating. New policies for aviation and maritime biofuels spur over 30% of new demand in the transport sector overall. Biofuels in the aviation sector are forecast to climb to near 2% of total aviation supply by 2030, up from near zero in 2023, supported by mandates in the European Union and the United Kingdom and incentives in the United States. In the maritime sector, EU legislation drives growth, bringing biofuels to nearly 0.5% of international shipping demand.
Modern solid bioenergy will still account for most renewable fuel growth and use in 2030. Solid bioenergy is mostly used for heat, with three-quarters of the increase over the forecast period from the industrial sector, mostly reflecting expanding sugar and ethanol production in India. The remaining growth results primarily from the rollout of improved biomass cooking and heating stoves in sub-Saharan Africa, India and China.
Demand for biogases increase by 30%, led by the United States and the European Union. India and China are building infrastructure and feedstock supply chains for future acceleration. The main driver in the short term is biomethane use in transport, supported by policies rewarding lower carbon intensities or waste feedstocks.
Policies are generating demand for renewable hydrogen and e-fuels use in transport. By 2030, near 40% of renewable hydrogen demand is set to be from the transport sector, driven by policies primarily in the United States, Europe and China. The remaining 60% will be used primarily for feedstock to replace existing hydrogen uses from fossil fuels in refineries and in the chemical and fertilizer industries – and for low-emission hydrogen steel production.
What has become abundantly clear over the past year is the EU''s determination to drive a fast transition to cleaner energy. Not only it has adopted the Green Deal and net-zero emissions by 2050, but it has also increased its 2030 emissions reduction target from 40 per cent to 55 per cent in comparison to 1990 levels. This means that climate change targets proposed in National Energy and Climate plans (NECP) for the period 2021-2030 – including Cyprus – are already outdated and will have to be revised upwards.
Cyprus'' NECP states that "Road transport holds the key to emissions abatement both for 2030 and for the longer-term." Transportation accounts for close to 50 per cent of Cyprus'' emissions not covered by EU''s ''Emissions Trading System'' (ETS). Despite that, not enough is being done to improve the situation.
And it will not get any better as we move into the 2021-2030 period, with an even higher target to achieve: a 14 per cent RES share by 2030. Cyprus considers this a challenging target to achieve, with biofuel blending expected to stay at today''s levels, even though this is woefully inadequate. With implementation of new policies and measures, electrification is expected to increase, but only towards the end of the period, but even then it is expected to stay at low levels, accounting for just over 3 per cent of the energy used in transportation by 2030.
In contrast, Greece has fully embraced energy transition. Not only by 2030 RES contribution is expected to reach 35 per cent – in comparison to Cyprus'' 23 per cent – but the RES share in transportation is set at 19 per cent.
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